Genetics
Genetic Determinants of Multiple Sclerosis Severity: Polygenic Risk, CNS Resilience, and Prognostic Machine Learning25, May 2026
Alper Bulbul
25, May 2026
This article examines how genetic variation contributes to the wide clinical heterogeneity observed in relapse-onset multiple sclerosis. Using longitudinal clinical data from the MSBase Registry and genome-wide analyses in 1,813 genotyped individuals of European ancestry, the study found no single common variant with a large effect on disease severity, suggesting that multiple sclerosis outcomes are influenced by many small-effect genetic factors rather than a dominant genetic driver. Notably, suggestive signals involved genes related to central nervous system function, mitochondrial biology, synaptic plasticity, oligodendroglial processes, and cerebellar pathways, indicating that severity may depend not only on immune dysregulation but also on neural resilience and repair capacity. The authors also demonstrated that a machine learning model combining genetic variants with baseline clinical variables predicted mild versus severe disease substantially better than clinical variables alone, highlighting the future potential of genomics-informed prognosis in multiple sclerosis.
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